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Close wins against teams in the bottom half of the American standings has made things harder on Cincinnati but easier on the College Football Playoff selection committee, which can use games against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa as a defense for keeping the unbeaten Bearcats behind at least three one-loss teams from the Power Five.
But the Bearcats may still move up in Tuesday night's rankings, boosted in spite of the narrow win against the Golden Hurricane by Michigan State's loss to Purdue.
Where the Spartans are ranked on Tuesday evening will impact the landing spot for several teams outside of what should be an uncontroversial top four.
Michigan State could land as high as fifth, which would recognize the recent win against Michigan and four road wins against Power Five competition. The Spartans could also fall as low as ninth, should the committee overlook the tiebreaker against the Wolverines and focus on the Purdue game and sloppy wins against Indiana and Nebraska.
One factor to keep in mind is the role head-to-head results played in the debut rankings, led by Oregon being ranked ahead of Ohio State. If that remains an important data point — and it's always hard to guess what the committee will value from week to week — the Spartans' loss may drop rival Michigan down in the rankings even after the Wolverines' solid win against Indiana.
Here's how the top 10 could look:
Which SEC quarterback leads the conference in yards per attempt and efficiency rating? That would be Georgia's Stetson Bennett, who has run with the starting job since replacing an injured JT Daniels in early September and created a difficult decision for coach Kirby Smart. That's about the only source of controversy for the no-doubt No. 1 team in this week's rankings.
The Crimson Tide won't be docked for beating LSU 20-14 as heavy favorites in the SEC West rivalry. One recent area of improvement is in red-zone efficiency, which was costly against Texas A&M — the offense had just two touchdowns in six trips inside the 20-yard line — but has been buttoned up in the weeks since: Alabama has scored touchdowns on all 11 red-zone trips against Mississippi State, Tennessee and LSU.
The Ducks could use a wire-to-wire blowout win to keep Ohio State and Oklahoma at bay. While the tiebreaker against OSU will always keep Oregon in the mix, look for committee members to put less weight into that victory if the Buckeyes add three ranked wins before the postseason.
Up next is Purdue, which will land in the back end of this week's rankings. Then comes Michigan State, followed by Michigan. Wins in all three will send OSU to the Big Ten championship in a matchup against another ranked team, whether that's Wisconsin, Iowa or Purdue. You can see why OSU would be a lock for the semifinals at 12-1.
Cincinnati could move up one spot in the rankings due to the lack of options at No. 5. Only two of Michigan State's six Power Five wins have come against opponents with a winning record. The committee was clearly not impressed with Oklahoma in the debut rankings. That could help the Bearcats climb into the top five despite struggling against Tulsa.
It will be interesting to see if Iowa State gets into the rankings after dominating the second half of a 30-7 win against Texas. If not, would the Cyclones get in with a win on Saturday against Texas Tech? Oklahoma has a chance to add four wins against teams in the final playoff rankings, which would make the 13-0 Big 12 champions hard to leave out of the semifinals. (In other words, this is not great news for Oregon.)
Losing to Purdue does some damage to the Spartans' credibility but doesn't change the team's postseason equation. Getting into the top four means winning out against Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State and the winner of the Big Ten West. Even had the Spartans beaten the Boilermakers, the matchup with the Buckeyes on Nov. 20 would have very likely served as an elimination game for the loser. Now that's official.
In this case, Michigan would suffer for the Spartans' loss. Fair or not, the committee would have a difficult time selling the argument that Oregon's win against Ohio State matters but Michigan State's win against the Wolverines does not.
To stay on the topic of head-to-head results: Should Cincinnati lose in the next few weeks, would the Bearcats fall behind Notre Dame despite winning in South Bend? That doesn't really matter for the Irish, who are set for a New Year's Six bowl regardless of what happens in the Group of Five.
Look for the Aggies to sneak ahead of one-loss Oklahoma State after adding a win against Auburn. That joins the earlier upset of Alabama to paint A&M as one of the hottest teams in the country. Winning this weekend at Ole Miss could lift the Aggies above the Irish.
Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg
