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New York joins California, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia in facing difficult times in tourism industry, but FIFA World Cup can reignite recovery according to the latest American travel forecast.
The slowdown is clear as New York joins California, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia in dealing with weaker international visits and rising economic risks. The tourism industry is under pressure, yet FIFA World Cup can reignite demand and transform outlooks.
Latest American travel forecast shows how New York joins California, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia in experiencing difficult times in tourism industry where growth slows and confidence dips. But FIFA World Cup can reignite momentum by attracting fans, boosting hotels, and filling airlines.
The latest American travel forecast highlights both risk and opportunity. Even when New York joins California, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia in reporting difficult times in tourism industry, the hope is strong that FIFA World Cup can reignite interest, restore balance, and power long-term tourism growth.
The U.S. travel industry faces a difficult year in 2025. Total spending is projected to grow just 1.1 per cent to $1.35 trillion. This growth is the slowest since the recovery began in 2021. New York, California, Florida, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Minnesota and many US States experiencing showering rate of US Travel. Now Domestic leisure travel remains the biggest driver, but international inbound visits are forecast to fall for the first time since 2020. The decline raises alarms across the tourism industry. Business travel will expand, but only at a muted pace. Despite these weaknesses, the outlook beyond 2025 is stronger. Events like the FIFA World Cup in 2026 and America’s 250th anniversary promise to reignite growth and set new records.
Domestic leisure travel is the bright spot in the 2025 outlook. Spending is expected to grow 1.9 per cent to $895 billion. Americans continue to value travel despite inflation worries. Families prioritise holidays, short breaks, and visits to attractions over other forms of spending. Prices of travel-related items have risen less than overall inflation, supporting consumer demand. The stability in pricing has helped keep domestic leisure resilient even when other areas of the economy face pressure. This segment remains the foundation of U.S. travel spending and will continue to shield the industry from deeper losses.
The biggest shock in the U.S. Travel forecast is the fall in international inbound visits. Arrivals are expected to drop 6.3 per cent in 2025, from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million. Travel to the United States will fall to just 85 per cent of 2019 levels. The decline is driven mainly by fewer visitors from Canada, while visits from other markets will remain flat. International inbound spending is forecast to fall 3.2 per cent to $173 billion. This fall reverses years of steady recovery and poses risks to airlines, hotels, attractions, and retail. For a country that relies heavily on international tourism for its travel trade balance, the projected $70 billion travel trade deficit is a serious warning sign.
Domestic business travel will grow in 2025, but at a slower pace than expected. Spending will rise 1.4 per cent, with group travel growing slightly faster than transient. The forecast suggests that business travel will not fully regain momentum until after 2026. It is only from 2027 onwards that business spending is expected to outpace leisure growth. For hotels, airlines and conference centres, this slow rebound means longer struggles to rebuild pre-2020 revenue streams. Events, meetings and exhibitions will continue to attract demand, but not yet at levels needed to fully balance the industry.
While 2025 looks weak, the years ahead hold extraordinary opportunities. International visits are forecast to resume growth in 2026 with 70.4 million arrivals. By 2029, arrivals will reach 81.9 million, surpassing historic highs. The FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th anniversary, the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics, and future Rugby and Winter Games will fuel unprecedented demand. These mega events create opportunities not only for airlines and hotels but also for local economies across host cities. The decade ahead could be the strongest in U.S. travel history if infrastructure, visa processing and international relations align to support it.
Despite the promise of future growth, risks remain high for 2025 and beyond. Consumer uncertainty about inflation and economic conditions could limit domestic demand. More importantly, visa fees and delays threaten to push international visitors away. Extended wait times for visas and renewals already frustrate many travellers. Negative perceptions of the United States in key markets could deepen the problem. Without urgent action to improve accessibility, the U.S. risks losing further ground to other global destinations. The slow pace of growth in 2025 reflects these challenges. The industry must address them to ensure a full recovery in the years ahead.
The United States travel industry is preparing for a year of slow growth in 2025. Spending will rise but at a weaker pace, and international visitors will decline for the first time since 2020. States that depend heavily on inbound tourism will feel the slowdown most. Yet the outlook is not entirely bleak. From 2026 onwards, major global events such as the FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th anniversary will spark a powerful rebound. This article explains the challenges of 2025 and the opportunities of 2026, with analysis of how states will be affected.
In 2025, total travel spending in the United States is projected to reach 1.35 trillion dollars. This marks a 1.1 per cent rise from 2024. Growth is positive, but the pace is slower than in previous years. Inflation, weaker consumer confidence, and global economic headwinds all play a role. Domestic leisure travel continues to support the industry, but it cannot fully offset the expected drop in international arrivals. For the travel economy, 2025 is set to be a year of caution rather than celebration.
American consumers remain the backbone of travel demand. Domestic leisure travel is forecast to grow 1.9 per cent to 895 billion dollars in 2025. Families are still prioritising holidays and experiences, even when budgets are tight. Travel-related prices have not risen as fast as other areas of the economy, giving households more room to book trips. Road trips, family vacations, and short breaks within the United States will help states maintain steady occupancy in hotels and steady bookings on airlines. Without this strong domestic base, the slowdown in international arrivals would hit much harder.
The most concerning figure in the forecast is the projected fall in international visitors. Inbound arrivals are expected to drop by 6.3 per cent in 2025, falling from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million. This is the first decline since the pandemic recovery began in 2020. Travel to the United States will reach only 85 per cent of 2019 levels. Spending from international visitors will also fall 3.2 per cent to 173 billion dollars. Much of the decline comes from fewer visitors from Canada, while volumes from other countries remain flat. This reduction has serious consequences for gateway states and major cities that depend on global tourism.
Some states will feel the pain more than others. New York, California, Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada depend heavily on overseas visitors. New York City relies on inbound tourists for hotel occupancy and attractions. California counts on travellers from Asia and Europe. Florida draws millions of Canadians each year for theme parks and beaches. Hawaii depends on international holidaymakers for its island economy. Nevada, with Las Vegas as its entertainment capital, relies on global visitors for conferences and leisure trips. All of these states will face challenges in 2025 as the international slowdown bites.
Other states are less dependent on overseas arrivals and will show more resilience. Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee, and Georgia benefit from strong domestic travel demand. They attract large numbers of Americans for conventions, road trips, music festivals, and sporting events. These states may see slower growth, but they will avoid the sharper declines expected in places like Hawaii or New York. Domestic visitors provide a stable foundation that helps balance weaker international spending.
Business travel spending will rise in 2025 but at a weak pace. Domestic business travel is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent. Group travel will increase slightly faster than individual business trips. The forecast suggests that business travel will not fully regain momentum until 2027 or later. For states with major convention centres such as Nevada, Florida, and Illinois, this slow rebound means continued challenges. While some meetings and exhibitions are returning, many companies still limit travel costs. Hotels and airlines that depend heavily on corporate bookings will need to adapt to this gradual recovery.
With international inbound travel falling, the United States faces a growing travel trade deficit. In 2025, the deficit is projected to reach 70 billion dollars. This means Americans are spending more on overseas travel than international visitors are spending in the United States. Outbound travel continues to grow, while inbound falls. This imbalance creates economic risks and highlights the need for stronger strategies to attract global travellers back to the United States.
There are several risks that could make the travel slowdown even deeper. Consumer uncertainty about inflation and the broader economy could reduce domestic spending. Rising visa fees and long wait times for visas could deter international travellers. Negative perceptions of the United States in key markets could also reduce interest. If these risks are not addressed, the industry could face even slower growth than projected.
Although 2025 looks weak, the future is brighter. Major global events will power U.S. travel from 2026 onwards. The FIFA World Cup in 2026 will bring millions of fans to host cities across the United States. America’s 250th anniversary will be celebrated nationwide, drawing both domestic and international visitors. The 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles and future Rugby and Winter Games will further fuel demand. These mega events will create unprecedented travel volumes, filling hotels, flights, and attractions. For states that host matches or celebrations, the impact will be especially powerful.
Host states of global events will see the biggest travel boosts. Texas, California, New York, Florida, and Georgia will host FIFA matches in 2026. Pennsylvania and Massachusetts will attract visitors for historic America 250 celebrations. Nevada will benefit from major live entertainment and convention activity. Minnesota will see visitors for the 2026 SummerSlam wrestling event. Washington D.C. will host unique attractions tied to America 250 and international diplomacy. These states should prepare early by expanding infrastructure, improving transport, and marketing globally to capture demand.
To take full advantage of mega events, states must invest in infrastructure. Airports will need to manage increased passenger traffic. Public transport must be efficient to move fans and tourists quickly. Hotels must expand capacity without overbuilding. Event venues must be modern and accessible. States that prepare well will be able to capture maximum benefits. Those that fail to prepare risk congestion, dissatisfied visitors, and lost economic opportunities.
Marketing will also play a key role in the rebound. States that promote themselves aggressively will win more visitors. For example, a tourist attending a FIFA match in Texas could be persuaded to also visit Colorado or Arizona with the right campaigns. America 250 celebrations can be promoted to international visitors as once-in-a-lifetime experiences. States must target both domestic and overseas travellers with clear messages about attractions, culture, and hospitality. Marketing is not just about visibility but about positioning states as welcoming, easy to visit, and worth extending trips.
While events create demand, there is also the risk of overcapacity. If states build too many hotels or expand too quickly, they may face empty rooms once events end. Careful planning is needed to balance short-term demand spikes with long-term sustainability. Cities must consider legacy use of stadiums, transport systems, and venues after mega events conclude. Overinvestment without future demand can create financial burdens for local communities.
Looking beyond 2026, the U.S. travel industry is well positioned for growth. International arrivals are forecast to rise steadily, reaching record highs by 2029 with 81.9 million visitors. Spending will climb to 1.49 trillion dollars. Business travel will grow stronger as economic conditions improve. Domestic leisure will remain a reliable foundation. The combination of mega events, stronger economies, and improved global confidence could make the late 2020s a golden decade for U.S. tourism.
The outlook for U.S. travel in 2025 is mixed. Spending will grow slightly, but international visitors will decline sharply. States that depend on global travellers will feel the pressure most. Domestic leisure travel will provide resilience, while business travel will recover slowly. Risks such as visa delays and inflation remain serious. But the horizon beyond 2025 is bright. Mega events like the FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th anniversary will drive record-breaking demand. States that prepare well with infrastructure and marketing will capture the biggest rewards. For the United States, 2025 is a pause before the surge.
For airlines, the forecast signals challenges in international seat sales. Routes from Canada and Europe may see reduced demand. For hotels, fewer inbound visitors mean weaker occupancy in gateway cities like New York, Los Angeles, Miami and Orlando. Attractions that depend heavily on international tourists will also feel the pressure. For the wider economy, a $70 billion travel trade deficit is significant, showing the need for balanced policies. Yet for domestic destinations, the continued rise in leisure spending creates opportunities to attract U.S. travellers. Destinations focusing on experiences, affordability and accessibility can capture more of the growing domestic market.
The U.S. Travel Fall 2025 forecast paints a clear picture. The year ahead will be marked by slower growth, weaker international arrivals, and rising risks. Spending will reach $1.35 trillion but with only modest increases. Domestic leisure will protect the industry, but international inbound travel will decline sharply. Business travel will show muted recovery. Yet beyond 2025 lies a powerful future. Mega events like the FIFA World Cup, America’s 250th anniversary and the Olympics will drive record-breaking arrivals. For the industry, the urgent need is to stabilise 2025 and prepare for the decade of opportunity. Travel in the U.S. is facing a pause before a powerful surge.
